I haven’t seen similar national stats but it wouldn’t surprise me if many people stayed home this year. I’d like to know who the Trump voters are. Are they young? Is it true that he gained a big swath of minority votes? I’m still astounded at his win and the margin by which he won. I think it’s pretty important that we learn about why a person would pick him of all people over Harris. Those lessons need to be learned for next time. It’s clear that you can’t assume people won’t switch parties in the privacy of the voting booth. Here in political Stepford, maybe not. Also: I now have an even lower opinion of Stickney.
All it took was (b) shifting a couple % points to tip the scales in places like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philly.
Also, there's evidence that in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, or Arizona where Trump won but the Democrats won the Senate/House races - many voters showed up, checked the Trump box and left. No idea who these people are but it's going to make the 2026 midterms real nuts because they will stay home without Trump on the ballot.
I did some calculations as well and saw that when you compare the 2020 percentage of Biden vs Trump with the 2024 percentage of Harris vs. Trump by ward, in 2024 Trump gained 3 points in Ward 5, 2 points in Ward 2 and 2 points in Ward 8.
Harris outperformed Biden in the rest of the city by slimmer margins, except in Ward 6 where she gained 2 percentage points and Ward 7 where she was up by 1 point.
So basically we see Trump gain in the "majority minority" and lower income wards while Harris gains in the most affluent.
I had thought we would have seen some slippage in Ward 6 and 7, but it was the opposite.
I haven’t seen similar national stats but it wouldn’t surprise me if many people stayed home this year. I’d like to know who the Trump voters are. Are they young? Is it true that he gained a big swath of minority votes? I’m still astounded at his win and the margin by which he won. I think it’s pretty important that we learn about why a person would pick him of all people over Harris. Those lessons need to be learned for next time. It’s clear that you can’t assume people won’t switch parties in the privacy of the voting booth. Here in political Stepford, maybe not. Also: I now have an even lower opinion of Stickney.
I am coming to the conclusion that:
a) Rich Places got marginally more Blue
b) Not Rich Blue Places got more Red
c) Not Rich Red Places stayed Red
All it took was (b) shifting a couple % points to tip the scales in places like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philly.
Also, there's evidence that in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, or Arizona where Trump won but the Democrats won the Senate/House races - many voters showed up, checked the Trump box and left. No idea who these people are but it's going to make the 2026 midterms real nuts because they will stay home without Trump on the ballot.
I did some calculations as well and saw that when you compare the 2020 percentage of Biden vs Trump with the 2024 percentage of Harris vs. Trump by ward, in 2024 Trump gained 3 points in Ward 5, 2 points in Ward 2 and 2 points in Ward 8.
Harris outperformed Biden in the rest of the city by slimmer margins, except in Ward 6 where she gained 2 percentage points and Ward 7 where she was up by 1 point.
So basically we see Trump gain in the "majority minority" and lower income wards while Harris gains in the most affluent.
I had thought we would have seen some slippage in Ward 6 and 7, but it was the opposite.
That is part two of my analysis so I am glad you posted so I can double check my numbers 🤣
I live in Ward 6 and Harris enthusiasm was high.
The rest of Evanston assume some things right about Ward 6, but also assume many things wrong.